ATLANTA—11Alive Sports dares to go where no sports Web site has ever gone before, in terms of churning out a mock draft ahead of the NBA draft on Thursday night.
The above proclamation, of course, represents sarcasm, since just about every media entity tosses their hats into mock-drafting ring for the NFL and NBA.
For this Round 1 exercise, we promise not to cover our bases with a slew of hypothetical caveats regarding potential trades. Yes, we all know deals will be made within the first 30 picks, but it's also pointless to speculate on things that are neither public information nor within our control.
Besides, even if we should nail the first 10 picks come Thursday night ... there would be no trophy presentation immediately after Philly's selection. And there's no monetary prize that accompanies being totally right or Bell-curve accurate.
In other words, mock drafts should be viewed for entertainment purposes only.
1-10
1. SUNS—C DeAndre Ayton (Arizona)
2. KINGS—SF Michael Porter Jr. (Missouri)
3. HAWKS—PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr. (Michigan State)
4. GRIZZLIES—PF Marvin Bagley III (Duke)
5. MAVERICKS—C Mohamed Bamba (Texas)
6. MAGIC—SG Luka Doncic (Slovenia)
7. BULLS—PG Trae Young (Oklahoma)
8. CAVALIERS—PG Collin Sexton (Alabama)
9. KNICKS—SG/SF Mikal Bridges (Villanova)
10. 76ERS—SF Miles Bridges (Michigan State)
BREAKDOWN
1. Ayton represents everything that's good and bad about the NBA draft.
On the plus side, he possesses a body like Zeus, great footwork around the basket, superb two-way skills and the capacity to carry Phoenix to playoff contention, in a relatively short time.
(It also helps to have Devin Booker lighting up the league.)
On the down side, given Ayton's incredible upside and local ties to the University of Arizona, the Suns essentially have no public recourse for passing on Ayton ... without angering the fan base.
2. Things get really tricky for picks 2-8.
I'm confident the seven names listed in these slots won't have any outside competition; but it's damn-near impossible to accurately predict the specific order, given the steady stream of misinformation on the Web.
That said, I'll buy the notion of the Kings looking past Marvin Bagley and Luka Doncic to grab Michael Porter Jr. at No. 2 overall.
Yes, Porter missed 98 percent of his freshman campaign, and this week's "muscle spasms" report has definitely raised a few draft-eve eyebrows.
But as long as Porter (6-foot-11, 210 pounds) gets a clean bill of health from the doctors, it's easy to see why NBA teams are quick to draw comparisons to Kevin Durant.
Besides, this time last year, Porter was the clear-cut No. 1 pick on draft boards.
3. I get queasy when reading articles boasting that Jaren Jackson will 'redefine the center position' in the NBA.
For starters, he's barely a power forward, let alone an anchor at center, minus the occasional small-ball lineup changes. Plus, the kid doesn't have a solid base of go-to moves in the post.
I should know ... having watched every second of Michigan State basketball from the last 20 years.
So, why not just envision Jackson becoming as a soon-to-be star at small forward—his natural position?
As such, the teen sensation should be an All-Star someday and candidate for a monster contract extension in about five years. In the meantime, he'll likely require time to grow into the high-pressure role of reliable offensive weapon.
On the plus side, Jackson was a formidable one-on-one defender at MSU, and even better with weakside-help defense; and of the Class of 2019 prospects who are 6-foot-10 or taller, Jackson might have the greatest shooting touch from long distances.
4. The floundering Magic (averaging 28 victories since 2011) have technically drafted well in recent years ... for other teams.
Of the franchise's best four players selected since 2013 (Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, Domantas Sabonis, Dario Saric), only Gordon remains with the club.
So, what do you get for the team that needs absolutely everything? Might as well start with Doncic (averages: 14.3 points, 5.2 assists, 4.6 rebounds this past season), who recently captured EuroLeague MVP honors at the tender age of 19.
Which raises the question: If Doncic is such a stud, how could he possibly fall to No. 6?
Well, it's a simple case of postional demand. If the Kings, who are reportedly infatuated with Doncic and Michael Porter Jr., opt for the latter teenager, then Doncic's next realistic landing spot would be the Grizzlies at No. 4.
In that case, Memphis would have a monumental decision between Doncic and Duke power forward Marvin Bagley III.
And finally with the Mavericks, if they tapped Doncic, they'd essentially be minimizing the development of point guard Dennis Smith, who was arguably the club's best player (as a rookie).
But this is why we love the draft: The obvious picks 12 or 24 months from now ... won't seem so crystal-clear on Thursday.
5. The Bulls and Trae Young would be an interesting pairing.
Of the clubs drafting in the top seven, only Chicago stands as a virtual lock for an 80-percent sellout rate next season, regardless of whomever the club grabs at No. 7 overall.
Also, as a close doppelganger to two-time MVP Stephen Curry, Young (2018 averages with Oklahoma: 27.4 points, 8.7 assists) has the potential to become a box-office attraction throughout the NBA, sooner than later.
11-20
11. HORNETS—PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Kentucky)
12. CLIPPERS—SG Lonnie Walker (Miami)
13. CLIPPERS—PF/C Robert Williams (Texas A&M)
14. NUGGETS—SG Donte DiVincenzo (Villanova)
15. WIZARDS—PF/C Wendell Carter Jr. (Duke)
16. SUNS—C Mitchell Robinson (USA)
17. BUCKS—PG Elie Okobo (France)
18. SPURS—SG Troy Brown (Oregon)
19. HAWKS—SG Zhaire Smith (Texas Tech)
20. TIMBERWOLVES—PF Moritz Wagner (Michigan)
BREAKDOWN
1. In a perfect world, the Hornets (coming off consecutive 36-win campaigns) would have their pick of point guards Collin Sexton and Gilgeous-Alexander at the 11 spot.
However, the Kentucky playmaker represents a rock-solid Plan B for a Charlotte franchise that needs a major retooling at virtually every position.
For starters, the club must find an heir apparent to Kemba Walker (heading into 'walk' year), who likely won't garner a mega-contract with the Hornets over the next 12 months ($150-$200 million).
From Charlotte's perspective, it would be a foolish deal.
Throwing extreme money at a roster problem which requires better drafting and substantial salary-cap flexibility; and presuming the Hornets trade Walker on the high side of the bubble, they'd still be reasonably set with a backcourt core of Gilgeous-Alexander, Malik Monk (last year's Round 1 pick) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
2. The rebuilding Clippers could have significant cap space available this summer—and nearly $13 million in trade exceptions—if center DeAndre Jordan opts out of his $24.1 million kicker for the coming season.
That's the good news.
On the down side, the Clippers need a robust infusion of long-term talent, or risk lagging behind the improving Lakers in victories (and attention) for another decade or so.
Enter the back-to-back picks in the draft (thanks to the Blake Griffin trade with the Pistons).
Los Angeles could justify any combination for these selections. My personal hunch calls for a high-end guard with Chris Paul-like potential (Lonnie Walker) and the heir apparent to Jordan (Robert Williams).
Not a bad way to re-launch the franchise.
3. If the Clippers wanted to get creative here, they'd swing a trade with the Nuggets for the 14th pick and subsequently select Villanova's DiVincenzo, the fastest-rising asset in the draft.
As demonstrated during the NCAA tournament, DiVincenzo has supreme long-range shooting skills, excellent athleticism (and leaping ability) and a good basketball IQ.
Makes perfect sense for the Clippers or Nuggets.
4. Some people are high on Atlanta native Wendell Carter Jr. But similar to Kevin Knox, it's hard to find a definitive landing spot for him in the lottery-ish range.
So, how does this change with the Wizards? Well, Washington currently has Marcin Gortat and Ian Mahinimi occupying the center slots; and neither has an existing contract longer than two years.
Enough said.
5. The Hawks would hypothetically encounter a wonderful four-way conundrum: Grab the perimeter ace/athletic marvel (Smith), the versatile big man with great upside (Wagner), one of the draft's best lock-down defenders (Khyri Thomas) or the aforementioned Knox, who has the physical upside of a lottery selection (low shooting percentages, though).
In the end, we're leaning toward Smith, who shot 45 percent from beyond the arc as a freshman.
21-30
21. JAZZ—SF/PF Kevin Knox (Kentucky)
22. BULLS—G Khyri Thomas (Creighton)
23. PACERS—SG Melvin Frazier (Tulane)
24. TRAILBLAZERS—PG/SG Anfernee Simons (USA)
25. LAKERS—SF Isaac Bonga (Germany)
26. 76ERS—SF Dzanan Musa (Bosnia/Herzegovina)
27. CELTICS—PG Aaron Holiday (UCLA)
28. WARRIORS—PG Jerome Robinson (Boston College)
29. NETS—SG/SF Chandler Hutchison (Boise State)
30. HAWKS—SG Kevin Huerter (Maryland)
________
33. HAWKS—SF Keita Bates-Diop (Ohio State)
BREAKDOWN
1. Within the above rationalization, notice how I didn't say Zhaire Smith would eventually become the best NBA player among Knox, Wagner and Thomas.
In the case of Thomas, he'll be a defensive star right away and then blossom into a strong asset on the offensive end, in due time.
Thomas has a great knack for getting to the rim ... so much that he reminds me of Victor Oladipo and Jrue Holiday.
Notice how I didn't say a poor man's Oladipo or Holiday.
2. After Melvin Frazier at 23 (excellent point-guard prospect), the draft becomes an absolute crapshoot—in terms of who gets drafted ... and which team handles the actual picks?
Why is that? Traditionally at the end of Round 1, clubs with ready-to-win rosters become more concerned with saving precious cap space, instead of doling out guaranteed contracts to fringe-status rookies.
Other franchises prefer to draft overseas talents at this juncture, knowing the prospects' NBA clocks would be delayed for a year or two.
It's an ideal short- and long-term move, since it affords the player more time to develop his skill set and allows the club to save money against the upcoming season's salary cap.
A true win-win ... unless the overseas player never gets heard from again (which happens a lot).
3. Frankly, I'm shocked Kevin Huerter didn't return to Maryland for his junior campaign. Yes, the kid has excellent shooting range from beyond the arc (check out the Syracuse game) ... but the other components need more polishing.
So, why has he been tabbed for the Hawks at No. 30? Hueter has likely garnered a draft promise from a handful of clubs at the tail end of Round 1; and Atlanta certainly needs more perimeter options.
4. For the 33rd pick (Round 2), we'll ride Keita Bates-Diop, the reigning Big Ten Player of the Year. For those not familiar with Bates-Diop's college legacy, look no further than this highlight clip against Penn State.
Simply put, the OSU wingman has a shooting touch/scoring knack that cannot be coached.
The only flaw: Bates-Diop won't wow you with springy athleticism; but then again, people undoubtedly felt the same about T.J. Warren coming out of North Carolina State.
With the Suns, Warren stealthily averaged 19.6 points per game last season ... with an efficiency field-goal rate of 52 percent.
