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Three reasons why the Atlanta Braves will clinch the NL East title this weekend

The Braves own a 26-9 record against the Mets and Marlins. The Phillies, in turn, posted a 19-19 record versus New York and Miami.

ATLANTA – 11Alive Sports has three seemingly air-tight reasons why the Braves (magic number: 6) will clinch the National League East title by Sunday's end, requiring at least three home victories over the second-place Phillies (78-73).

Before that, here's a simple explanation of why Atlanta (84-68) leads Philadelphia by 5 1/2 with only 10 games remaining:

a) The Braves own a 26-9 seasonal record against the bottom-feeding Mets and Marlins.

The Phillies, in turn, posted a 19-19 overall record versus New York and Miami, respectively.

b) Atlanta holds a slight seasonal edge over Philly, winning seven of 12 games.

That's a differential of 10 1/2 games, once again favoring the Braves.

As such, the club enters its final home stand with a wonderful cushion to earn Atlanta's first playoff berth in five years, while also being on pace for 90 victories –- which might be enough to secure the home-field advantage during the National League Divisional Series round.

WHY THE BRAVES WILL CLINCH THIS WEEKEND

1. The Phillies won't be sending their best to the mound on Thursday, Friday, Saturday

Check out the 30-day numbers with the first three pitching matchups (below):

THURSDAY

Vince Velasquez (1-2, 6.75 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, .275 OBA) vs. Kevin Gausman (3-1, 2.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .226 opponents' batting average)

FRIDAY

Nick Pivetta (0-3, 4.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, .237 OBA) vs. Julio Teheran (1-1, 2.73 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, .172 OBA)

SATURDAY

Jake Arietta (1-1, 6.49 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, .288 OB) vs. Sean Newcomb (2-3, 5.79 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .253 OBA)

Gausman and Teheran are viewed as heavy favorites for Thursday and Friday success, based on their numbers since late August.

In fact, Teheran has been pretty good for long stretches at SunTrust Park, the bane of his existence last season.

Charting his previous eight starts at home, dating back to early July, Teheran boasts a 2.67 ERA and 45/23 K-BB rate.

On the flip side, Velasquez and Pivetta have been wretched in the last month, regardless of venue.

Charting his last seven starts, Velasquez has surrendered four or more runs four different times, including a shaky, two-inning stint versus the Marlins last week.

On the plus side, the Braves hitters shouldn't expect many free passes on Thursday. Since May 10 (21 starts total), Velasquez allowed three or fewer walks 18 different times.

Pivetta has been the Phillies' most schizophrenic starter of the last three months. Since June 29, the right-hander has endured five outings of five-plus runs – and eight efforts of two or fewer runs.

In that vein, Pivetta could be a worthy challenger to Teheran – and we'll likely know the full result after just two or three innings.

Saturday's matchup could go in any direction. Arietta and Newcomb have incurred major struggles of late; neither Gabe Kapler (Phillies manager) nor Brian Snitker (Braves) should be patient with their starters on this day, given the strength of Sunday's superb matchup (Aaron Nola vs. Mike Foltynewicz).

Which brings us to this: Philly knows its season could end by Saturday, right? What's the logic in delaying Nola's contribution to this crucial series?

Nola might be a viable candidate for NL Cy Young honors (16-5, 2.44 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 210/53 K-BB rate) ... but he'll be useless on the bench for Thursday through Saturday.

2. Atlanta's middling home record still carries greater weight than Philly's ugly road mark

The Twins are 14 1/2 games back of the AL Central-clinching Indians, holding court (second place) in baseball's worst division; and yet, Minnesota (43-31) has a substantially better home record than Atlanta (39-38).

Why is that? As someone who lived in Minneapolis last year, I can reasonably say Target Field doesn't offer anything in the form of a daunting home-field advantage; but for whatever reason, the 2018 Twins have been playing at a postseason-worthy level in their own friendly confines.

Go figure.

What can explain the Braves' so-so mark at SunTrust Park?

Among National League clubs, the Braves rank No. 2 in runs scored at home, trailing only the Rockies in this category.

On the flip side, Atlanta has surrendered the fourth-most runs (among the NL) when playing at SunTrust Park.

MINI-VERDICT: It's a wash

Among NL teams, the Phillies rank 13th (out of 15) in runs scored on the road, leading only the Padres and Giants.

On the flip side, Philly's pitchers have been respectable for runs allowed on the road. However, keep in mind, at the time of this writing, the Phillies have played the fewest road outings among the National League clubs.

MINI-VERDICT: Advantage, Braves

3. The Braves will win this series, if they can limit Carlos Santana to an on-base percentage below .340

The above line seems rather specific, but there's a method to the madness:

Rhys Hoskins leads the Phillies in homers over the last 30 days (seven); but Santana has been the club's most complete force during this span–racking up five homers, 13 RBI, 15 runs, a .302 batting average, .398 OBP and .924 OPS since Aug. 19.

For good measure, Santana also has a sublime K-BB rate of 11/15 during this stretch.

So, for the Braves pitchers, it's a pretty simple deal: If you want to keep the Phillies down all weekend, while creating an aura of inevitability regarding the division crown, then absolutely make an example of Santana -- for every at-bat.

Bar none.

And if this doesn't work ... just wait for Ronald Acuna Jr. or Ender Inciarte to do something amazing at the plate or while perusing the outfield.

Since Aug. 19, Acuna and Inciarte have cumulatively accounted for 10 homers, 38 runs, 23 RBI, six steals, a .310 batting average and an OPS rate hovering around .950.

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